TOM STRYKER’S FREE FOOTBALL SELECTION SUNDAY, OCTOBER 10TH
#478 KANSAS CITY (-3) over Buffalo at 8:20 PM EST
With playoff revenge and off three consecutive SU and ATS wins over Miami, Washington, and Houston, Buffalo appears to be an attractive investment at Kansas City on Sunday night. Respect is given to the Bills and their mini run. However, fading the Chiefs at home in primetime isn’t going to happen anytime soon.
Yes, Kaycee is just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games. That fact is noted. But, dating back to October 25th, 2015, head coach Andy Reid and his players have assembled a strong 79-27 SU and 60-45-1 ATS record including a jaw-dropping 50-20 SU and 46-23-1 ATS when they are competitively priced as an underdog or a favorite of -6.5 or less. In addition, at home priced as an underdog or a favorite of -4 or less, Kansas City carries an elite 74-47-1 ATS record provided they are lined up against a foe that scoots in off a straight up win. In this spot checking in off a road war, the Chiefs improve to a solid 49-26-1 ATS.
Off the shutout home win over the Texans, this will prove to be a tough spot for Buffy. Since 1980, NFL road teams own a soft 72-94-4 ATS record provided they pitched a shutout in their last game. If our “play against” side battled in the comforts of home last, this situation falls to a miserable 53-85-3 ATS including an ugly 13-31 SU and 12-31-1 ATS if their opponent arrives off a blowout win of seven points or more. With those three parameters live and our guest lined up against a non-division foe, this situation falls to a woeful 2-18 SU and 1-18-1 ATS. That spells trouble for Buffalo.
Respect is given to the Bills defense. But Buffy hasn’t faced a high-octane attack like the one they will see on Sunday night. The Chiefs are averaging 33.5 points and 453.0 yards per game, and they will defend their home turf. Take Kansas City. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
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