The last five weeks of an NFL season can be critical especially for those teams on the bubble. In this System of the Week, I took a look at how good teams did at game 12 of the season if they still owned a losing record. I was anticipating that these underachievers would do well. I was completely surprised with my discovery. Take a look.
Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any NFL game 12 team in non-division play that owns a 5-6 SU record provided they check in off a straight up win and their opponent arrives off a straight up loss.
38 Year ATS Record = 17-3 ATS for 85.0 percent
This Week’s Play = CINCINNATI BENGALS
The knee-jerk reaction would be to side with this 5-6 SU NFL team thinking they would want to get back to the .500 mark. Off a win and with their opponent off a loss, a victory would be automatic right? WRONG!
There is a way to make this situation stronger too. If our “play against” side finds themselves on the road, this Game 12 system falls to an ugly 0-7 ATS. Fresh off a pair of upset wins over the Chargers and Steelers, the Broncos apply to this winless tightener.
Good luck with the Bengals on Sunday.