TOM STRYKER’S FREE BASKETBALL SELECTION FRIDAY, MARCH 21ST
#790 ST MARY’S (-4′) over Vanderbilt at 3:15 PM EST
Off the loss to Gonzaga in the WCC Championship Game and string of four pointspread blemishes, St. Mary’s will pick up a huge win and cover over Vanderbilt in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament. The Commodores enter this postseason battle in a funk on a dismal 0-3 SU and ATS run and ‘Dores head coach Mark Byington won’t be able to rally the troops here.
Technically speaking, this is a highly profitable spot for the Gaels. In the First Round of the Big Dance, favorites that arrive off a SU and ATS loss in their conference tournament championship game hold a reliable 95-67-1 ATS record. If our “play on” side owns a team won/loss percentage of .750 or higher, this postseason situation jumps to a solid 61-38-1 ATS including a respectable 13-5 ATS provided they are priced short at -5 or less. Also, in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament, teams from the WCC that arrive off a pointspread loss hold a rewarding 12-5 SU and 11-6 ATS mark.
There is a strong technical situation that works against Vanderbilt here, too. In the First Round of the NCAA Tournament, teams slipping in off three or more pointspread losses own a horrible 29-49 ATS record provided their opponent does not take the floor off a blowout victory of nine points or more. If our “play against” side is fighting a foe that holds a team won/loss percentage of .700 or higher, this angle crashes to a nasty 11-27 ATS. The Commodores apply to both parts of that negative wagering situation.
Over the last 10 years, the Gaels have put together a tremendous 109-39 SU record against non-conference foes and head coach Randy Bennett and his boys will lean on their tenacious defense (allow an avg of only 60.7 ppg) to grab this dub and cover. Take St. Mary’s. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
MICKEY’S 11-1 ATS 4* NCAA TOURNEY 1ST ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR
The TSPC nailed both of their posts yesterday cashing with Lee’s wager on Texas A&M and AJ’s selection on Wisconsin and returns with a monster play from Mickey that will definitely deliver. Two solid angles back this investment and these gems hold elite marks of 11-1 ATS and 16-5 ATS. Grab Mick’s 4* NCAA Tourney 1st Round Game of the Year for $30.