TOM STRYKER’S FREE FOOTBALL SELECTION FRIDAY, OCTOBER 18TH
#367 TOLEDO (+3) over Northern Illinois at 3:30 PM EST on Saturday
Off that stunning 15-point road loss at Buffalo as a -10.5-point favorite, Toledo will travel to DeKalb and upset Northern Illinois. The Huskies enter this MAC battle off a pair of less than impressive straight up wins over the Minutemen and Falcons and this will be a tremendous challenge for head coach Thomas Hammock and his crew.
Historically speaking, the Rockets have played well as a guest in this series inking an elite 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS record in their last 12 tries. In addition, when coming off a straight up loss and now lined up against a conference foe, UT holds a profitable 59-25 SU and 45-27-1 ATS mark including an outstanding 47-20 SU and 44-23 ATS provided head coach Jason Candle and his crew take the field off a pointspread blemish as well. There is a strong system that sides with Toledo, too. Since 1980, college football road teams that lost straight up as a road favorite of -10 or more in their last contest hold a reliable 38-18 ATS mark provided their opponent carries a team won/loss percentage of .630 or better. If our “play on” side slipped by four points or more last, this system tightens up to a spectacular 33-7-1 ATS.
Dating back to the start of the 2013 season, NIU has struggled financially in its own backyard posting a surprising 16-32-3 ATS record. In this setting tackling a foe that arrives without steam off a straight up loss, the Huskies fall to a miserable 2-13-1 ATS and own a disturbing 0-9-1 ATS mark in their last 10 in this role. Also, at home battling an opponent that arrives off a straight up loss as a favorite, Northern Illinois holds a rough 2-11-1 ATS tally in its last 14 tries. Lastly, when favored versus a foe that owns a team won/loss percentage of .501 or higher, Coach Hammock and his players own a feeble 18-28-2 ATS record including 12-24-2 ATS provided neither team is rested.
Ranked first in the MAC in scoring offense (32.3) and second in scoring defense (21.0), the Rockets will bounce back with a solid effort against the Huskies. Take Toledo. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
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