TOM STRYKER’S FREE FOOTBALL SELECTION FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 20TH
#391 FLORIDA (-6) over Mississippi State at 12 PM EST
The Bulldogs are locked into a negative 29-78 ATS game one conference situation and they’ll have all kinds of problems matched up against this angry Gators bunch. Florida enters this SEC battle off a frustrating home loss to Texas A&M and head coach Billy Napier needs this dub in order to save his job. Let’s take a peek inside the numbers.
Technically speaking, this is a lucrative spot for UF. Even though these two programs haven’t hooked up since 2018, the Gators have played well in this series inking a 15-6 SU record in the last 21 meetings. Even better, on foreign soil checking in off a straight up loss, Florida has been worth the financial risk posting a proud 21-13-1 ATS mark including an elite 12-2-1 ATS if its opponent played in the comforts of home last. Also, since 1980, SEC road favorites priced competitively at -12.5 or less that check in off a SU and ATS loss own a profitable 79-49-1 ATS tally provided they are lined up against a conference foe.
Since the start of the 2019 season, Mississippi State has been an average football team inking a 32-33 SU and 23-36-1 ATS record. In this run checking in without confidence off a SU and ATS loss, the Bulldogs fall to a woeful 12-14 SU and 6-17-1 ATS including a shocking 1-11 SU and ATS in this setting provided they are priced as an underdog. Additionally, when priced as an SEC home dog, MSU holds a disturbing 0-9 SU and ATS in their last nine tries. Please note: Those nine blemishes came by an average of 19.8 points per game.
The Gators struggled against the two good teams they’ve faced this year (Miami and Texas A&M) and dominated the only bad squad on their schedule (Samford). Mississippi State is one of the SEC’s worst and UF will be able to impose its will on this inferior opponent. Take Florida. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
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