Tom Stryker’s Free Football Play October 20th


#334 CINCINNATI (-3) over Baylor at 12 PM EST
In a bad mood off last week’s 20-point home loss to the Cyclones and with a massive challenge in Stillwater against the Cowboys on deck next Saturday night, the Bearcats will make sure they pick up this Big 12 victory when the Bears come to town. Baylor limps into this conference matchup off a week of rest and a 25-point home loss to Texas Tech and this will be a difficult spot for head coach Dave Aranda and his crew.

Even though Cincinnati is on a surprising 7-17-1 ATS run in its last 25 lined games, that won’t be enough to keep us off head coach Scott Satterfield and his crew. In their own backyard arriving without confidence off a straight up loss, the Bearcats hold a respectable 30-17 ATS mark provided their opponent arrives off the comforts of a home game. If the ‘Cats hold a team won/loss percentage less than .350, this angle tightens up to a highly profitable 16-3 ATS including a spotless 6-0 SU and ATS if they are favored. Also, since 2018, Big 12 hosts that take the field without steam off a SU and ATS loss hold a reliable 53-35-3 ATS mark provided they are competing against a conference opponent. If the line falls between +8.5 and -8.5 points, this Big 12 trend improves to a healthy 37-17-2 ATS.

Currently on a dismal 2-8 SU and 3-6 ATS run in its last nine games, Baylor won’t get healthy inside Nippert Stadium. Since 1996, the Bears have gone into hibernation on the road inking a horrible 5-13 SU and 3-14-1 ATS record provided their opponent takes the field without momentum off back-to-back SU and ATS losses. In this situation holding a team won/loss percentage less than .600, BU falls to a nasty 1-10 SU and 1-9-1 ATS including a shocking 0-10 SU and 0-9-1 ATS if it takes the field off a straight up loss as well. Please note: Those 10 blemishes came by an average of 17.6 points per game.

Resting uncomfortably with an 0-3 SU record in the conference, Coach Satterfield will make sure his boys bounce back here and pick up their first Big 12 victory. Take Cincinnati. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.


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