TOM STRYKER’S FREE BASEBALL SELECTION WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 4TH
#952 TAMPA BAY with Eflin (-158) over Texas with Eovaldi at 3:08 PM EST
After getting blanked by the Rangers 4-0 yesterday and, with elimination on the line, the Devil Rays will storm back with one of their best efforts of the season and force a decisive third game in the Sunshine State tomorrow.
Hitting the hill for the home team will be right-hander Zach Eflin. Lined up against the Red Sox, Angels, and Orioles in his last three starts, No. 24 was nicked for only six earned runs and 12 hits in 17.0 innings of work. Zach struck out 22 and walked one on his way to a 2-0 record with a strong 3.18 ERA. Equally impressive, with 18 home starts in the books this year, Eflin was touched for 38 earned runs and 94 hits in 103.2 frames. After the math, that adds up to a powerful 11-4 mark with a reliable 3.30 ERA.
Aging righty Nathan Eovaldi will counter for the visitors. In his last three trips to the bump, No. 17 was clobbered for 15 earned runs and 15 hits in 13.1 innings. Nathan whiffed 14 and walked seven on his way to a 1-1 tally with a woeful 10.13 ERA. Actually, since the All-Star break, Eovaldi has made seven starts and been punished for 21 earned runs and 28 hits in 26.1 frames. That adds up to a 2-2 record with a weak 7.18 ERA.
Several lucrative team trends support this investment. Tampa Bay has tasted victory in 85 of its last 126 as a favorite priced at -110 odds or higher this season, 47 of its last 63 if they are laying between -150 and -200, and 23 of its last 31 with Ef holding the pill. On the other side of the yard, Texas has slipped in 95 of its last 169 in the second half of the season over the past two years.
With the memory of what the Guardians did to them in last year’s AL Wildcard series, the Devil Rays will rally the troops (and hope for a few more fans) and pick up this victory. Take Tampa Bay with Eflin. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
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