TOM STRYKER’S FREE BASEBALL SELECTION MONDAY, AUGUST 7TH
#960 NEW YORK with Senga (-120) over Chicago with Smyly at 7:10 PM EST
Even though these are two teams that are headed in opposite directions, the Mets have the better arm on the bump, and they’ll do just enough to knock off the Cubs on Monday night. Chicago has won five of its last six (two out of three versus Atlanta and three straight over Cincinnati) and this will prove to be a tough trip for manager David Ross and his men.
Rookie righty Kodai Senga will take the mound for the home team. Facing the Royals, Nationals, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks in his last five starts, No. 34 was scraped for only eight earned runs and 24 hits in 29.0 innings. Kodai struck out 35 and walked nine on his way to a 1-1 tally with a 2.48 ERA. Equally impressive, inside Citi Field, Senga has been right on target surrendering 15 earned runs and 34 hits in 56.1 frames. After the math, that equates to a 3-2 record with a powerful 2.40 ERA.
Struggling left-hander Drew Smyly will pick up the pill for the visitors. Dating back to June 28th, No. 11 has made seven appearances (five starts) and been slammed for 29 earned runs and 41 hits in 30.0 innings of work. Drew whiffed 35 and walked 11 on his way to a dismal 1-3 mark with a woeful 8.70 ERA. Since July 16th, 2022, Smyly has made three starts against the Boys from the Big Apple and was tripped for four earned runs and 13 hits in 14.1 frames. That shakes down to a 2-0 mark with a 2.51 ERA.
There are a few money-making trends that support this Best Bet. When competitively priced as a favorite from -100 to -150, New York has quietly cashed 71 of its last 114. On the other side of the field, Chicago has dropped 15 of its last 25 against teams from the NL East.
Smyly has been the Cubs weakest link on the mound lately and this is an excellent chance for the Mets to pick up a win in this series. Take New York with Senga. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
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