TOM STRYKER’S FREE BASEBALL SELECTION TUESDAY, JULY 18TH
#956 ATLANTA RUN-LINE with Elder (-1′ -111) over Arizona with Davies at 7:20 PM EST
Off a pair of home losses to the White Sox and with a day to iron out the kinks, the Braves will have no trouble extending the margin in this National League battle. Arizona limps into this conest off four consecutive blemishes (and eight of its last 10 overall) and this will be a tough encore for manager Torey Lovullo and his boys.
Young righty Bryce Elder will take the mound for the home team. In his last start at Tampa Bay, No. 55 was hammered for seven earned runs and six hits in only 3.1 innings of work. Bryce walked four, failed to strike out one single batter, and was tagged with the loss in the 10-4 beatdown. Thankfully, with 18 starts in the bank this season, Elder has been competitive surrendering only 35 earned runs and 93 hits in 106.0 frames. After the math, that adds up to a sweet 7-2 mark with an elite 2.97 ERA.
Countering for the visitors will be veteran right-hander Zach Davies. Since the 18th of June, No. 27 has made five starts and been punished for 21 earned runs and 26 hits in 25.2 innings. Zach whiffed 19 and walked 11 on his way to an ugly 0-3 mark with a dismal 7.37 ERA. The night skies have been a problem for the Puyallup, Washington product as well. Under the lights, Davies has been dunked for 17 earned runs and 24 hits in 25.0 frames. That’s bad enough for a 1-2 tally with a rough 6.12 ERA.
There are a handful of highly profitable team trends that support this investment. Atlanta has won 12 straight when coming off a loss of four runs or more and 119 of its last 174 when playing with the moon shining. Meanwhile, Arizona has fallen in 176 of its last 227 when priced as a road underdog between +175 and +250.
The Braves advantage in the NL East rests at 10.0 games and manager Brian Snitker would like to keep that double-digit lead. Take Atlanta on the run-line with Elder. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
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