Tom Stryker’s Free Baseball Play September 15th


#954 NY METS RUN-LINE with Carrasco (-1′ -120) over Pittsburgh with Brubaker at 7:20 PM EST
After getting swept in three straight at home by the Cubs, the Mets will show no mercy when the Pirates visit the Big Apple. Pittsburgh just ripped off four consecutive wins at Cincinnati and manager Derek Shelton and his boys are ripe for a beating.

Taking the pill for New York will be veteran right-hander Carlos Carrasco. With 25 starts in the books this season, No. 59 was nicked for only 57 earned runs and 141 hits in 135.0 innings of work. Carrasco struck out 132 and walked 35 on his way to a solid 14-6 record with a powerful 3.80 ERA. Carlos has been at his best inside Citi Field too. At home, Carrasco has surrendered only 29 earned runs and 81 hits in 78.0 frames. That’s good enough for an 8-2 mark with a solid 3.35 ERA.

Young righty JT Brubaker will take the mound for the Bucs. So far this season, No. 34 has made 26 starts and been punished for 67 earned runs and 146 hits in 138.1 innings. Brubaker fanned 140 and issued 51 free passes on his way to a dismal 3-11 record and a 4.36 ERA. The road hasn’t been kind to JT either. On foreign soil, Brubaker has been bombed for 31 earned runs and 73 hits in 72.0 frames. That’s bad enough for an 0-7 mark and a 3.88 ERA.

Several strong team trends support this investment. New York has won 32 of its last 44 when facing a foe that scored five runs or more last, 38 of its last 53 coming off a loss, 37 of its last 55 in the first game of a series, and 35 of its last 51 at home facing a right-handed starter. On the other side of the field, Pittsburgh has fallen in 21 of its last 27 against NL East foes, 12 of its last 17 in the first game of a series, and 131 of its last 189 as a guest.

Clinging to a half-game lead over the Braves for the top spot in the division, the Mets need this victory badly and they’ll have no trouble extending the margin here. Take New York on the run-line with Carrasco. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.


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