TOM STRYKER’S FREE BASEBALL SELECTION THURSDAY, JULY 7TH
#908 NY METS with Williams (-174) over Miami with Castano at 7:10 PM EST
Checking in off that huge win in extras at Cincinnati over the Reds, the Mets will return home and go on a run. New York’s lead in the competitive NL East rests at 2.5-games over Atlanta and manager Buck Showalter’s boys need this dub in order to keep their slim advantage in the standings.
Veteran right-hander Trevor Williams will take the mound for the home team. In his last start at home against Texas, No. 29 was roughed up for five earned runs and five hits (three of which left the park) in just 3.2 innings. Williams struck out three, walked one, and was tagged with the “L” in the Rangers 7-3 victory. Even off that poor outing inside Citi Field, Trevor’s efforts in his own backyard have been solid. At home, Williams has been touched for only nine earned runs and 21 hits in 21.7 frames. That shakes down to a 1-1 tally with a respectable 3.74 ERA.
Young lefty Daniel Castano will counter for the Fish. With seven appearances in the books this season including just four starts, No. 20 has been tapped for seven earned runs and 26 hits in 26.0 innings. Castano whiffed 15 and walked nine on his way to a 1-1 record with a 2.42 ERA. In his last three starts, Daniel has been average at best. Facing the Rockies, Mets, and Nationals, Castano was cranked for seven earned runs and 16 hits in 15.1 frames. That equates to a 1-0 mark with a 4.11 ERA.
Plenty of powerful team trends support this Best Bet. New York has won 22 of its last 28 in the first game of a series, six of its last eight at home against a left-handed starter, 40 of its last 59 against division foes, and 46 of its last 68 when facing an opponent that owns a team won/loss percentage less than .500. On the other side of the park, Miami has slipped in 26 of its last 35 on the road in this series, 47 of its last 68 in the first game of a series, and 57 of its last 85 after scoring two runs or less in their last game.
After four straight at home against the Marlins, the Mets must hit the road to face the Braves and Cubs. With Hotlanta charging hard, Showalter’s troops will make sure they defend their own turf. Take New York with Williams. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
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