TOM STRYKER’S FREE BASEBALL SELECTION TUESDAY, JULY 6TH
#955 LA DODGERS with Gonsolin (-140) over Miami with Lopez at 7:10 PM EST
Off yesterday’s 5-4 road loss to the Marlins, the mighty Dodgers will get back on track with a solid effort in this rematch. Miami has alternated wins and losses in its last six games and manager Don Mattingly’s kids are in prime position to fall.
Young right-hander Tony Gonsolin will take the bump for the visitors. So far this season, No. 26 has appeared in five games for LA (four starts) and been touched for only five earned runs and 12 hits in 16.0 innings of work. Gonsolin assembled a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 22-13 and owns a 1-0 record with a solid 2.81 ERA. Overall, with 25 career appearances in the books (18 starts), Tony has been nicked for only 30 earned runs and 70 hits in 102.2 frames. That’s good enough for a 7-4 tally and a nifty 2.63 ERA.
Righty Pablo Lopez will be up on the bump for the Marlins. In 2021, No. 49 had made 17 starts for the Fish and been popped for 30 earned runs and 76 hits in 91.0 frames. Lopez has whiffed 94 and walked 22 on his way to a 4-5 mark with a 2.97 ERA. At home, Pablo has posted some good numbers surrendering 12 earned runs and 39 hits in 53.2 innings. That equates to a 2-3 tally and a 2.01 ERA.
With both arms capable, the following trends will help bring this investment home. Los Angeles has won 87 of its last 121 when facing a foe that holds a team won/loss percentage less than .500, 41 of its last 58 after allowing five runs or more in its last game, and 62 of its last 88 when priced as road chalk. Meanwhile, on the other side of the beach, Miami has dropped 53 of its last 76 when battling a foe that owns a team won/loss percentage greater than .600 and 13 of its last 17 fighting an opponent that allowed five runs or more last.
Resting a half-game (0.5) behind the Giants in the NL West standings for the top spot, the Dodgers need this dub to keep pace in the division. Take Los Angeles with Gonsolin. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
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