TOM STRYKER’S FREE BASKETBALL SELECTION TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 11TH
#643 NEW MEXICO (+) over San Diego St at 11 PM EST
With a head of steam off Saturday’s 29-point home win over Wyoming, New Mexico will stroll right into Viejas Arena on Tuesday and give No. 4 San Diego State all it can handle and more. The Aztecs bring a shiny 24-0 SU (13-0 MW) record into this battle and that goose egg is about to get cracked. Let’s take a look inside the numbers.
In this series, UNM has played well posting a reliable 36-25 ATS mark in the last 61 meetings. The Lobos will be hungry for a little revenge too. Back on January 29th, New Mexico (+11.5) hosted San Diego State and got absolutely clobbered 85-57. When playing with revenge and arriving off a blowout win of 10 points or more, the Lobos have been a solid investment notching a reliable 53-34 ATS mark. In this role shagging +11 or more, UNM jets to a golden 5-0 ATS. Also, as an underdog grabbing +7 or more and arriving with confidence off a straight up win, the Lobos sport a solid 23-9 ATS record.
Respect is given to San Diego State’s undefeated mark. However, when laying double-digits, the Aztecs own a feeble 24-33-1 ATS record provided they take the court off a blowout victory of 10 points or more. In this role running the floor against an opponent that sports a pointspread won/loss percentage of .500 or less, SDSU falls to a horrible 9-28-1 ATS including 3-16 ATS if they’re fighting a conference foe. Also, since 1990, undefeated hosts at game 21 of the season or later own a dismal 19-29 ATS mark. If our “play against” perfect team is competing against a foe that scoots in off a SU and ATS win, this situation falls to an ugly 8-16 ATS. That spells trouble for the Aztecs.
Offensively, the Lobos were limited to just 57 points in the first meeting. In this second look against the Aztecs stout defense, UNM’s high-octane offense (18th in scoring averaging 79.6 ppg) will do much better. Take New Mexico. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
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