NFL Game 6 Gut-Check

There are a lot of great handicapping situations in the NFL that center around game numbers and a teams won/loss percentage. The Team Stryker database has the keen ability to look at all of them from the first game of the season to the last and isolate how good or bad teams perform with the record they have in hand.

This week’s System takes a look at a pro team in a critical game six setting holding a 2-3 SU mark. When you only play 16 games in a season, the last thing you want to do is slip further and further under .500. It becomes too difficult to battle back. When teams are close to that number, they have a tendency to rise up and play some good football. This is one of those times. Take a look.

Since 1980, PLAY ON any NFL road team in game six with a 2-3 SU record provided they check in off a straight up loss.

39 Year ATS Record = 55-36-1 ATS for 60.4 percent


Early in the season, this 2-3 SU traveler is focused on doing whatever it takes to get back to the .500 mark. A loss here drops out guest to 2-4 SU and into a tailspin. Conversely, a win brings them back to even on the year and they sky is the limit from there.

There is one special parameter we can add to this general situation that really makes it pop. If our “play against” side sports a team won/loss percentage of .500 or worse, this situation tightens up to a rewarding 29-14 ATS for 67.4 percent. Denver owns a 1-4 SU mark (.200) so the Broncos apply.

It’s never easy fading the Orange Crush in the altitude at Mile High. But, we’re getting points and the Titans have enough on both sides of the ball to pull off the upset. Best of luck with Tennessee!