What exactly was that Boston College?
Last Thursday, after exactly one quarter of play, the Eagles (-18) held a 17-7 advantage over the Jayhawks. Yes, that was the same Kansas team that had just lost 48 straight on the road against Power 5 programs. Then, KU flipped the switch. When the final gun sounded, head coach Les Miles and the Jayhawks walked off the field with a 48-24 victory.
Without question, that was crushing loss for Boston College. I turned to my college football database to see how teams do after laying an egg like that. Surely, they would bounce back and demolish their next opponent. Right? I couldn’t have been more wrong. Take a look at this awesome discovery.
Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any college football team that lost straight up as a favorite of -17 or more provided their opponent takes the field off a straight up loss as well.
39 Year ATS Record = 60-39-2 ATS for 60.6 percent
This Week’s Play = RUTGERS
I will be the first to admit that I never expected this result. After an embarrassing loss as a hefty favorite, the knee-jerk reaction would be to side with that team in their next game thinking they would want to bounce back in a big way off that lousy effort. In reality, there is a touch of a “hangover effect” and this same team struggles once again.
After banging away at the Team Stryker Database, there were four parameters that could be added that made this situation even more profitable. If our “play against” side holds a team won/loss percentage of .501 or better and is favored once again, this system falls to a shocking 6-26-1 ATS provided their opponent sports a team won/loss percentage of .350 or higher. Even worse, with those three situations live and the team we are “playing on” not off a pointspread loss of 13 points or more, this system falls to a jaw-dropping 0-19 ATS!
Off a week of rest and a 30-0 shutout loss at Iowa, the Scarlet Knights will jump all over this emotionally spent Eagles squad and provide us with a nice underdog winner on Saturday! Good luck with Rutgers!