TOM STRYKER’S FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL SELECTION FRIDAY, MARCH 22ND
#802 VIRGINIA (-) over Gardner-Webb at 3:10 PM EST
As you know, the Cavaliers became the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed when it dropped a 74-54 decision to UMBC last season. Virginia has waited over a year for this day to return and you can bet your last buck the Cavs won’t fall here. Gardner-Webb checks in off its upset win over Radford in the Big South Tournament and it will be one and done for the Bulldogs.
Off the blemish to Florida State in the ACC Tournament semifinals and the memory of what happened in the Big Dance in 2018, Virginia isn’t about to take this game lightly. Since the start of the 2015 season, UVA has been on some kind of run posting a proud 112-25 SU and 78-50 ATS record. In this setting checking in off a straight up loss, the Cavs jump to a profitable 14-7 ATS including a golden 8-0 SU and ATS in this set if they are priced as a favorite of -11 or more. Also, when running the floor against a foe that enters off a straight up underdog win, the Cavaliers hold a lucrative 35-5 SU and 25-15 ATS record including an elite 18-0 SU and 14-4 ATS in this set if UVA enters off a pointspread loss.
This is a poor wagering spot for UMBC too. Since 1991, NCAA Tournament Round 1 teams that take the floor off back-to-back straight up underdog wins hold a soft 6-34 SU and 15-23-2 ATS record provided their opponent arrives off a straight up loss. If our “play against” side is battling a foe that carries a team won/loss percentage of .775 or better, this technical situation falls to a miserable 0-19 SU and 5-13-1 ATS. Also, No. 16 seeds in the First Round of the NCAA Tournament hold a disturbing 0-78 SU and 30-47-1 ATS record if they are battling a No. 1 seed that carries a team won/loss percentage of .910 or less. In this role priced heavily at +22 or more, our “play against” No. 16 seed falls to a woeful 0-53 SU and 18-34-1 ATS. That spells trouble for the Bulldogs.
The Cavaliers have the distinction of being the only No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed. After having to walk around for a year with that hanging over their heads, the Cavs will leave no doubt in this blowout. Take Virginia. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
Hitting the hardwood with confidence off a perfect 3-0 ATS SWEEP on Thursday (WON with 3* Best Bets on Kansas, Michigan and Purdue), Stryker is prepared to nail his lone 4* Best Bet in the round of 64. An extremely rare 31-3 ATS NCAA Tournament System is there for support along with one huge emotional factor that will provide the assist. Grab Tom’s 4* NCAA Tournament Round 1 Game of the Year for $25.