TOM STRYKER’S FREE COLLEGE BASKETBALL SELECTION THURSDAY, MARCH 21ST
#768 LSU (-) over Yale at 12:40 PM EST
After tanking in the quarterfinals versus Florida in the SEC Tournament, LSU will kick off the First Round of the NCAA Tournament with a bang on Thursday afternoon. Yale enters this contest after winning the Ivy League Conference Tournament on its homecourt and they will have all kinds of problems in this matchup.
The Tigers loss to the Gators actually places them in a highly profitable situation here. Since 1991, NCAA Tournament Round 1 teams that hold a No. 3 or No. 4 seed own a profitable 35-2 SU and 28-8 ATS record provided they enter off a straight up loss as a favorite in the quarterfinals of their conference tournament as a No. 4 seed or less. If our “play on” side is a No. 3 seed that is favored by -4 or more, this situation jumps to a stunning 14-0 SU and 13-1 ATS. Also, the Bayou Bengals come into this tournament game playing very well on a blistering 21-4 SU and 15-8 ATS run including a lucrative 18-1 SU and 15-3 ATS in this set provided the Tigers are not off a blowout win of 15 points or more.
Wagering against Yale won’t be a problem either. According to the Team Stryker Database, the Ivy League has struggled in the Big Dance lately notching a dismal 3-15 SU and 6-12 ATS record dating back to March of 1999. In this role battling an opponent that carries a team won/loss percentage less than .815, our Ivy schools drop to a miserable 0-12 SU and 2-10 ATS. In addition, when priced as an underdog of +9 or less, Yale owns a timid 12-28 SU and 14-24-2 ATS record provided it takes the court off a double-digit straight up win. If the Bulldogs are facing a foe that arrives off a conference game, this trend falls to an ugly 6-18 SU and 7-17 ATS.
With the suspension of coach Will Wade and the early exit from the SEC Tournament, the knee-jerk reaction for some will be to fade the Tigers in this spot. However, the Bayou Bengals are elated to be back in the Big Dance after a four-year drought and they will come together as a team and grab this win and cover. Take LSU. Thanks and best of luck, Tom.
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