Sometimes it takes a little bit of luck to find a good NFL system. While researching one specific bundle of parameters, I can’t tell you how many times I got off track and discovered a profitable venture in a completely different set. Surprisingly, it happens a lot.
This week is the perfect example. When I began my research, I was trying to build a case for home underdogs. So far this season, home pups own a respectable 13-6 ATS record and there are four of them this week: Cleveland, Buffalo, Detroit and Seattle. If you take the Monday night home dogs out of this equation, this quick angle actually improves to a strong 13-4 ATS.
Well, after about an hour of hacking away at the Team Stryker Database, you’ll be shocked at what I discovered. Don’t ask me how I got there – I really have no idea. What you’re about to read contains only a fragment of the parameters I had in hand when I started. But, it sure turned out to be a gem. Take a look:
Since 1980, PLAY AGAINST any NFL non-division favorite provided they covered their last three games all as an underdog.
38 Year ATS Record = 47-23-2 ATS for 67.1 percent
This Week’s Play = BUFFALO
At least the Bills are a home dog! I did start with that parameter listed. All kidding aside, after barking loudly the last three weeks and cashing tickets, this non-division favorite has all kinds of trouble covering this number. Tennessee actually enters this game a bit of a “fat cat” off three straight up underdog wins too. The Titans just upset Houston, Jacksonville and Philadelphia and now find themselves laying points on foreign soil. Talk about a role reversal!
There are a couple of tighteners that can be added to this system that enhance its profitability. First, if our “play on” side was NOT priced as a hefty double-digit underdog in their last game, this situation improves to a money-making 43-15-2 ATS. There is a second piece to this puzzle but it will remain for my eyes only. I will disclose that when this situation is in play – and it is live this weekend – the record of this system jumps to a powerful 38-9-1 ATS.
Defensively, the Bills are a solid football team. We’ve already seen that. Now, let’s just hope the Buffy offense can find a way to put some points on the board! Good luck with Buffalo (+) on Sunday!