Tom’s 32-6 ATS NFL Early Season Surprise Road Warrior

This week, NFL teams will be participating in their third regular season game.  With a pair of battles in the bank, a number of contenders and pretenders have been identified already.  There are nine squads out there that have undefeated records (the contenders) and nine others that have winless marks (the pretenders).  But what about those teams that split their first two games out of the gate and own a 1-1 SU mark?

There are 14 teams on this week’s card that hold a 1-1 SU record.  In a 16 game season, getting out to a 2-1 SU start compared to 1-2 SU beginning is a very big deal.  According to my notes, since 1997, a whopping 91 teams have started the regular season out 0-2 SU and only 10 of those teams made it to postseason play.  So, the odds of a 1-2 SU team getting there can’t be much better!

With that thought process in mind, I turned to the Team Stryker NFL database to see how these 1-1 SU teams did at game three.  There was a discovery made that caught me by surprise and it will carry the freight as my NFL System of the Week.  Take a look:

Since 1980, PLAY ON any NFL road underdog or favorite of -2.5 or less provided both teams are competing in their third regular season game and both own identical 1-1 SU records.

38 Year ATS Record = 70-40-5 ATS for 63.6{98f2b46702b964aa2f621cb1b604d81e6a02f7a689ec244db25f4c0c4ad46cb7}


When I first ran this set of parameters, I fully expected the home team to do very well.  It would make perfect sense for the host to do anything it could to get the win in order to push its record to 2-1 SU!  I couldn’t have been more wrong.  Surprisingly, it is the road team that steps up and plays well especially if the price is right.

There was one additional parameter I found that made this situation even better.  If the team we are playing on is facing a foe that played a non-division foe last, this pro system tightens up to a spectacular 47-17-3 ATS for 73.4 percent.  Actually, since 1997, this NFL situation is on a jaw-dropping 32-6-1 ATS run for 84.2 percent!  Off the two teams listed, only the Colts fit this special tightener.

The Horseshoes got it done for us last week on the road against the Redskins and we’ll come right back with Indy plus the points at Philadelphia on Sunday.  Hopefully Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz will need to shake off some rust in his first start since injuring his knee!  Good luck with Indianapolis!